Inside the BCA report that undermined Australia’s 2035 emissions target

“If modelling excludes benefits, hides assumptions, and sets an artificially narrow range, it isn’t informing policy – it’s manipulating it.” — Claire Snyder, Director, Climate Integrity.

In September this year the Business Council of Australia (BCA) released its report prepared by McKinsey & Company, examining investment needs for different 2035 emission reduction targets (–50%, –60%, and –70% from 2005 levels). 

While presented as analysis to inform Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target, the report is marked by clear bias in both framing and method, designed to encourage the government to set a weaker target. 

Key issues include ignoring the benefits from cutting emissions, lack of transparency about its modeling methods, misrepresentation of Australia’s starting point, and an apparent neglect of least-cost abatement pathways. 

In engaging with BCA member companies since, we’ve learned that many were unaware of the report’s contents – or of the BCA’s lobbying around it. 

This lobbying from the BCA undermines its members' commitments to the Paris agreement and exposes them to the legal and reputational risks of negative climate policy engagement.